Sutton predicts Mexico win over England but Brazil to survive scare from Norway

BBC Sport pundit Chris Sutton has delivered his score predictions for every last-16 tie at the 2026 World Cup, including a nervy night for England against Mexico in Mexico City. Sutton’s forecasts, published by the BBC, come after a mixed set of results in the last 32 in which Paraguay’s shock win over Germany caught out both him and the vast majority of fans who took part in the corporation’s predictor game.

According to the BBC, Sutton got 13 of his 16 last-32 predictions correct, while Microsoft Copilot’s AI model, used by BBC Sport for comparison, managed 12 out of 16. Fewer than one in fifty of the more than 60,000 fans who entered the BBC’s predictor game backed Paraguay to beat Germany, making it the standout surprise of the round alongside Morocco’s win over the Netherlands.

With 88 of the tournament’s 104 matches played, BBC Sport reports that Sutton has now called 54 results correctly (61 per cent), the AI model has hit 55 (63 per cent), but supporters using the predictor tool remain out in front with 62 correct results, a strike rate of 70 per cent.

England’s Azteca test

The tie of most interest to English supporters sees Thomas Tuchel’s side travel to face hosts Mexico in the imposing surroundings of the Azteca Stadium. Sutton acknowledged Mexico’s outstanding home record in competitive fixtures but noted that England represent the toughest opponent the hosts have faced there in some time.

Sutton praised England’s performance in seeing off DR Congo in the previous round but admitted he has reservations about their defensive solidity. He nevertheless expects Harry Kane to find the net as England create enough chances to progress, predicting a 2-1 win for the Three Lions. The AI model reached the same conclusion, also tipping a 2-1 England victory.

Brazil’s European hoodoo

Elsewhere, Sutton believes Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil face a stern examination from Norway, pointing out that the Selecao have never beaten the Scandinavians in four previous meetings and have historically struggled against the first European side they meet in the knockout stages. He expects Arsenal defender Gabriel to have his hands full containing Manchester City striker Erling Haaland.

Sutton’s verdict is a 2-2 draw after extra time, with Norway going through on penalties thanks to a heroic display from goalkeeper Orjan Nyland. The AI model took a very different view, forecasting a comfortable 4-2 win for Brazil.

France and Morocco fancied to progress

In the other last-16 fixtures covered, Sutton expects Canada’s run to end against Morocco, whom he tips to win 2-0 in Houston, with the AI model predicting a narrower 2-1 victory for the North Africans. Sutton, working the game for BBC Radio 5 Live, said his commentary colleague Eilidh Barbour shares his view on that result but expects France to be too strong for Morocco in the quarter-finals.

Sutton also expects France to have few problems against Paraguay in Philadelphia, forecasting a heavy 5-0 win built around Kylian Mbappe, while the AI model went for a more cautious 3-1 scoreline. Sutton suggested the outcome hinges on whether France can score early and take the sting out of Paraguay’s resistance.

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